How to trade Google now that it's killed the Nexus One

This is the dumbest article I have read in a while. All you have is some random rants and comments. You clearly lack the understanding of this industry. Please go back, learn and get your facts straight about how the manufacturing and business model for Nexus One from other more informed bloggers. -- Comment from dumbdumb on Five Reasons Google's gonna kill the Nexus One on The Cody Word 1:44 pm January 18, 2010

iphone, nexus one or cody, whats the most stupid of all? the cody word -- Random Reader 1:05 pm January 18, 2010

What a stupid article. There is no real content and just random comments about Google. -- Comment from igoogle 12:45 pm January 18, 2010

I was going to set this “dush bag” straight but seeing all the previous posters did. Have a good day sir. -- Comment from vsx 12:41 pm January 18, 2010

The guy that wrote this knowns nothing…. pretty poor article. I recommend doing a bit of research in future -- Comment from Lee T 1:26 pm January 18, 2010

Your an idiot! -- Comment from gus 1:53 pm January 18, 2010

You have to be flexible when you trade. In many ways, it shouldn't matter how long you've held a position, what you've told your investors about how long you expect to hold that position, or how much pride you've got in having found that nugget. And it sure shouldn't matter what the peanut gallery's saying about you.

Case in point from my own life is Google. One of the proudest moments of my investing life was when I changed my mind about Google the day after telling Maria Baritiromo on national TV that I didn't plan to buy Google the day it came public the very day before it came public. I wrote a mea culpa on my trading blog the next morning and went out and paid up for Google in the open market at $95 a share and told the viewers the next time I was on TV what an idiot I'd been for hesitating about getting long Google at these prices. I sold the stock when I took my job at Fox Business a few years later...somewhere closer to $600 a share. Swallowing pride had been proven a successful trading strategy in my mind. Certainly, flexibility was key -- it hadn't mattered how stupid I might look for "flip-flopping" my stance...I got long Google the day it came public and stayed long it and wrote about why it was such a great long for years after.

But then one day, not long after I'd become a full-time TV pundit and wasn't trading stocks at all anymore, I heard one of the reporters from my new firm repeat over and over how "Google was being perceived as a safe stock" as it was getting closer to $700 a share while the rest of the broader market was tanking.

I went on the show that night and told everybody it was probably time to buy puts, because I used to be made fun of for calling Google a safe stock back when it was at $100, 200, 300...and now at nearly $700 it's being "perceived as safe?"

Later, when it fell to $450 or so, I got excited about the stock again...remember, be flexible.

Here's me talking to Whoopi Goldberg about being flexible with Google --

Whoopi and I talked about liking and then disliking Google. She was okay with it. You should be too. And also, completely related to this same topic -- notice how politely Stephanie disagreed with me and took the other side of my MSFT recommendation? (She was right, btw!)

At any rate, I'm sure I'll be villified for saying this now, because all the people who started reading my blog because I trashed Google's Nexus One (and in many people's minds, Google itself) will now have to deal with me throwing kudos to both Google for doing exactly what I'd written back in January, ten days after they launched the Nexus One: Google killed the Nexus One today.

And I'll also tell you that we've added Google to the Revolution Investing portfolio as a long position once again. I expect we've got some pretty good upside in the stock both in the short-term and in the longer term. Sign up for my weekly Revolution Investing newsletter to get all my analysis on Google and to track how we'll be trading it.

Or if you'd rather, you can leave me some hate commentary below. The more hate you put out there, the more data my subscribers and I have to work off of.

Did you miss the revolution?

Better to be lucky than good, perhaps, but it's been one heckuva week for traders and investors who subscribe to my newsletter and even those who gambled on my Smackdown with my old friend Scott Moritz from TheStreet.com.

Three short weeks ago, I wrote a newsletter called "Rock this short", and in it I laid out the logic behind why I thought Live Nation was in dire straits for both the short-term and the long-term.  I mean, at the risk of dropping names faster than Live Nation's stock, I had Bob Weir from the Grateful Dead, the money manager for Santana, an attorney for Britney Spears, and about five other very connected people confirm that Live Nation was about to get crushed because they'd overpaid for their acts and were having to cut prices and fees like a scalper at halftime of a blowout. 

As I wrote at the time:

Everybody knows this is nowhere, and everybody I know in the music business is telling me to short Live Nation. And like a good rock fan should, I'm listening... click here to read on.

As for the Smackdown, in which I picked five stocks reporting earnings this week that I thought looked like good trades (both long ideas and short ideas) -- well, I can tell you after having traded thousands of earnings reports back over the years when I used to trade for a living that going 5 for 5 is about as lucky as you can get in the near term.  I'll take it and pretend to take all the credit in the world for it, since, frankly, that's all I get for analyzing trades like this these days.  The fact is that I did allocate 80% of the pretend trading money in Smackdown to long positions in INTC and ADTN because I had a lot of conviction that they were going to report very strong quarters and give great guidance AND that that Wall Street was pricing in exactly the opposite -- that is Wall Street expected fundamental weakness in the reports and I expected strength. 

That's a recipe for a great near-term trade because that way you've got the expectations, the pschology and the fundamentals all set up for you.  You can see the whole Smackdown portfolio by clicking here.

More importantly than those short term trades, though, I've had my newsletter subscribers in Adtran since it was in the low 20s and we're still holding it strong, as the company is in a very sweet spot for the ongoing and accelerating build out of the wireless high speed networks around the world.  The company has been executing, the fundamentals improving, the analysts are chasing the estimates higher and that's probably going to be going on for several quarters.  You'll need to subscribe to know how we'll be handling the stock from here, but rock on if you caught the short-term pop off my Smackdown recommendation too.

If you'd like access to all my favorite stock picks, investment allocation concepts, and short-term trading opportunities, you can sign up at http://marketwatch.com/cody.

Rock on, indeed, eh!

Codytwit: Market to rip higher, LeBronchitis, and why BP is likely headed Bankrupt

Here's some of what I was tweeting about in just the last couple days at http://twitter.com/codywillard:

Take the other side of headlines proclaiming: "Dow Repeats Great Depression Pattern: Charts". I'm saying RIGHT NOW that market's about to rip 10% higher from this 9800 level this morning by summer end on its way to 12k by sometime 2011. $$ 12:32 PM Jul 7th

I'm baaack. My latest- http://bit.ly/cMuHSQ "What are you trying to prove, what does it prove?" 2:48 PM Jul 7th

Did LeBron possibly gain any new fans by how he's handled this? And if not, does it matter to his bottomline that so many of us are turned off by how he's letting everybody grovel to the King James? Apparently money/media is a motivating factor for the guy - and I would be fine with that. But this self-induced hypefest... on overdrive probably means lot of will ever admire him like we used to. With all this LeBron-athon going on,let's go ahead and say it: the MSM (certainly ESPN) have a bad case of LeBronchitis. And with that, I'm done contributing to the LeBron-athon hype. Next topic, please! about 21 hours ago

I figure there's more than $100BB worth of spill liabilities. BP = BK < 2yrs. (BP is going bankrupt, IMHO).

Question: Are you short BP, Cody? Answer: I don't trade at all right now. I probably would slowly buy longdated out-ofthe-$ puts over the next year were I running $.  I wouldn't trade BP at all as an individual investor though. Unless you can manage trading OTM puts and know how to create positive gamma if the trade starts working for you, don't mess with trying to trade BP. Unless you know what I mean when I say I'd try to use the beta in BP to create positive gamma to capture alpha, REMAIN AN OBSERVER of BP.

Also, let's keep it real: It ain't Obama that's gonna force BP into bankruptcy. It's the court system of the USofA. It's justice!

Since when are high end estimates relevant? Since when do analysts get it right? When BP first said 5k barrels a day, I laughed on TV and said we would soon find out it was probably an order of magnitude higher. High end estimates were 10-12k barrels a day. We're now at 60k estimates average? High end estimates are currently what? ;) Creative accounting or not, math can't trump a sucking sound of $100s of BBs of $s going out the door to clean up and meet endless claims. See Dow Corning about 14 hours ago

Driving into NYC today, Sabrina turns the Sirius to the Grateful Dead channel and as the music starts, the system flashes "Bob Weir calling". Bob and I talked biz and all...but come on, we summoned him, no? Du du du du. about 13 hours ago

Song o' the day: Grateful Dead- So Many Roads http://youtu.be/gfGD94CchJU Whining boy got nowhere to go, So many roads I tell you, So many roads I know about 12 hours ago

Comment of the day: "Who would want to use the internet to tell people things that they think?? Not me!" Article: http://gu.com/p/2t5yn/tw about 1 hour ago

How long have both bulls & bears been preparing for "deflation"? http://www.google.com/trends?q=deflation. I've always pointed out the big diff btwn "deflation" and "depreciation". Prices at the supermarket won't drop EVER in the fiat currency US. But we will go thru phases of seeing our assets depreciate, ie the stock... and real estate market crashes of 2008 and 2009. How I'd trade this concept: http://shar.es/mUir about 1 hour ago

I'm baaaack.

Sam: What'll you have Normie?
Norm: Well, I'm in a gambling mood Sammy. I'll take a glass of whatever comes out of that tap.
Sam: Looks like beer, Norm.
Norm: Call me Mister Lucky.

I'm back and I'm bringing all my Flip It, my Revolutionomics, my blood in the streets approach and everything I've been missing with me.

I'm still not sure how I ended up hosting a TV show...a TV show from the Waldorf Astoria's Bull & Bear bar at that.  It was a very cool job, that whole TV host thing I just did.  I met a lot of really famous, rich and/or powerful people, many of whom were very sincere in their work and causes, some of whom were awe-inspiring and a few who gave me the creeps.  Yeah, it was a real rush, but as many a commenter and more than one critic noted, my viewpoints, my look and my approach might not have really fit in too well all the time over at the company.  I suppose I'll just leave it at that.

Anyway, when they canceled Happy Hour, I asked them to let me go even though I still have a lot of friends over at the Dow Jones-owned Fox News and FBN and even at the main Fox network and plan to continue working with them at times.

But I wanted to get out.  Unshackle myself for a while. Call it faith, call it confidence, call it hubris, call it stupidity -- but I figure there's some more beer in my career taps.  Hell, I sorta feel like a free agent (not quite King James, of course), and the last three weeks have been a wild whirlwind.  Some of the things I'm working on and/or looking at range from working with a team to finish up a business plan for a venture I'm working on with Bob Weir from the Grateful Dead (I'll be posting a couple videos of us jamming at his place in coming days on http://TheCodyBlog.com) to fielding some TV ideas that have come my way too.  Yeah, more TV, sigh.  "Just when I thought I was out, they pull me back in!"  (You can't ever go wrong quoting The Godfather, you know - just ask Stevie Van zandt):

I'd like to say I'm headed to the movies, but that Chavista-apologist director Oliver Stone wrote me and all of FBN out of Wall Street 2.  Surely that happening had nothing to do with capitalism, right?  I've been spending a lot of time in Hollywood lately...maybe I should make the move!  Ha. I will crank out a book finally and am also joining the speech-giving circuit.

My companies have got a few other Internet-content/media businesses (our latest venture...think App News & Reviews) that I've been working on behind the scenes that are starting to get going (we need some help -- if you're willing to do some high-profile work for free at first to get your foot in the door and prove yourself to us, send your resume to revolutionresumes@gmail.com).

I've also been working with James Altucher on a new fund/investment vehicle under his Formula Capital umbrella that we're expecting to launch on October 1 (exactly eight years to the day since I last launched a fund).  Investing, running money, finding another Apple or two to ride from $7 to $160 like I did before I took the TV job full-time and closed my old fund is probably what I'm really jonesing about.  It feels like what I'm meant to do in many ways.

At any rate, you can still find me writing as much as ever here on my blogs (http://blogs.marketwatch.com/cody if you want to read only my business/political/investment blogs OR at http://TheCodyBlog.com if you want to read everything I write).  You can also follow me on http://twitter.com/codywillard or find me on facebook.

"What are you trying to prove, what does it prove?"