Score One Against Bubble Talk
11/20/2006 9:13 AM
We had a pretty good turnout in Friday's poll, which ran until midnight last night, with about 600 votes. The results were:
- 19% of the readers of this blog think we're in a historic bubble right now.
This number's probably a little lower than it should be because like Ross Perot, my next bullet point probably stole some of this otherwise more popular vote. But think about it another way: At least nearly 1 in 5 of the readers around here believes we're in a bubble. That means that more than 1 in 5 of us is implicitly permabearish from these levels. And people wonder why I use that phrase.
- 24% of the readers of this blog believe we'll enter a bubble next year.
I wish I'd worded that as "over the course of the next year or so," but I bet the results would have been the same. I bet this poll result is wildly inflated compared with the general investing public, because I've put this possibility in readers' head pretty consistently over the past few months.
- 32% of the readers of this blog believe talk of bubbles is crazy, because the market's so undervalued.
The parallel of that 20% permabear existence is that about 33% of readers around here believe stocks are wildly undervalued, and that means more than a third of us are implicitly permabulls.
- 25% of the readers of this blog believe that talk of bubbles is pointless.
Can't argue that logic, I suppose. Bubbles don't matter til they do, after all.
In the vein of striving for more scientific results, I'd ask any financial bloggers out there to run this same poll on their own blogs and to send me the results with the links. Let's see what the difference is between our data. I'll highlight the results from each and all of those polls on Friday this week.